World cereal production in 2007 has been revised downward since the previous report in July, but at 2 114 million tonnes (including rice in milled terms), would still be a record high, and 5.3 percent up from 2006. India’s position of cereal production is 239.13 million tonnes with the share of  11.31 per cent. The govt. of India recently revised the 2007/08 food grain production estimate upward to record 227.3 million tons from its earlier estimate of 219.3 million tons, citing favorable growing conditions for the upward revision. The revised estimate includes 76.8 million tons of recently harvested wheat, 95.7 million tons of rice, and 39.7 million tons of coarse grains, and 15.2 million tons pulses, all records, concerns about food inflation forced the government to ban exports of non-basmati rice effective April 1, 2008, impose an export duty of $ 200 per ton on basmati rice on top of the minimum export price of $1000 per ton, make rice imports duty free, and restrict private participation in wheat purchases.

However, the government has reportedly permitted exports of 500,000 tons of non-basmati rice to Bangladesh, announced in the aftermath of cyclone damage in Bangladesh. According preliminary government data, rice exports in CY 2007 were around 6 million tons.

The export ban on non basmati rice and the export restriction on basmati rice would drastically lower India’s rice exports in CY 2008 and MY 2008/09 to around 2.0 million tons, mostly basmati rice, and some non-basmati rice exports under bilateral agreements/food aid programs. Although India abolished the Import duty on rice erective March 21, 2008, through March 31, 2009, no import have taken place so far as world prices are much higher than Indian prices.

Production fo other coarse grains in MY 2007/08 includes 7.7 million tons of sorghum, 12.2 million tons of millet and 1.3 million tons barley marketed in MY 2008/09. The increase is largely in response to higher international prices as India has now emerged as an exporter of corn and there are no export restrictions on corn unlike in the case of wheat and rice.

India’s MY 2007/08 corn exports are estimated at 1.5million tons, mostly to South East Asian countries and the Middle East. Besides corn, India is also exporting some barley. In October – November are likely to continue in MY 2008/09.